Japan

Sustained demographic change can have potentially significant effects on the economy and the financial system. Aging can affect financial intermediation through its effects on potential growth, on the term structure of interest rates and risk premiums in general, and on the demand for retirement-related products and services. At the same time, in an aging society, the financial sector has a particularly important role to play in helping to foster growth and productivity. This note analyzes and quantifies the effect of aging in Japan—both at the national and regional levels—on the nature of financial intermediation and concludes that the relative role of banks is likely to diminish.