Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter

This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Publication date: December 2010
ISBN: 9781455210923
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Labor , Output Gap , Structural Government Deficits , Cyclical Government Deficits , nairu , unemployment rate , Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models , Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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