Predicting Recessions: A New Approach For Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations

WPIEA2011235 Image
Price:  $18.00

Author/Editor: Chikako Baba, Turgut Kisinbay
Release Date: © October, 2011
ISBN : 978-1-46392-201-6
Stock #: WPIEA2011235
English
Stock Status: On back-order

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Description

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data shows that forecasts obtained from the algorithm are consistently among the best in a large comparative forecasting exercise at various forecasting horizons. In addition, the selected indicators are reasonable and consistent with the standard leading indicators followed by many observers of business cycles. The suggested algorithm has several advantages, including wide applicability and objective variable selection.

Taxonomy

Business cycles , Economic development




More publications in this series: Working Papers


More publications by: Chikako Baba ; Turgut Kisinbay