Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data

WPIEA2011048 Image
Price:  $18.00

Author/Editor: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Jan-Christoph Rulke
Release Date: © March, 2011
ISBN : 978-1-45521-894-3
Stock #: WPIEA2011048
English
Stock Status: On back-order

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Description

The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.

Taxonomy

Economic cooperation , Economic policy , European Economic and Monetary Union , Fiscal policy , Monetary unions




More publications in this series: Working Papers


More publications by: Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro ; Jan-Christoph Rulke