Description

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.

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Taxonomy

Banks and banking , Central banks , Economic policy , Economic sectors , Financial institutions and markets , Inflation , Monetary policy , Money supply , Private sector

More publications in this series: Working Papers

More publications by: Kenji Moriyama ; Abdul Naseer