Description

This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

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Taxonomy

Economic cooperation , Economic policy , Euro area , Monetary policy , Monetary unions

More publications in this series: Working Papers

More publications by: Ondra Kamenik ; Ioan Carabenciov ; Igor Ermolaev ; Charles Freedman ; Dmitry Korshunov ; Jared Laxton ; Douglas Laxton ; Michel Juillard