Growth: Now and Forever?

WPIEA2014117 Image
Price:  $18.00

Author/Editor: Giang Ho, Paolo Mauro
Release Date: © July, 2014
ISBN : 978-1-49830-982-0
Stock #: WPIEA2014117
Stock Status: On back-order

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Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.

More publications in this series: Working Papers

More publications by: Giang Ho ; Paolo Mauro