This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions,
and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing
Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of
country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in
particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of
the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger
external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth
accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the
probability of reversals.
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