Germany’s open economy has been performing well, underpinned by prudent economic management, past structural reforms, and a well-developed social safety net. Employment growth is strong, the unemployment rate is at a record low, output growth is above potential, and the fiscal position keeps strengthening. However, despite high and rising capacity utilization and job vacancy rates, wage growth and core inflation so far remain too low and business investment lacks momentum, while adverse demographics weigh on long-term growth prospects. The large and persistent current account surplus in part reflects these imbalances, which result in high domestic savings and better investment opportunities abroad, though external factors also play a role. Germany should embrace a set of coordinated fiscal and structural policies to safeguard its strengths and address remaining challenges, including reducing external imbalances.
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