Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity : An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy

There is growing evidence that the yield spread could serve as a leading indicator of real economic activity. This paper is an attempt to test this hypothesis for the Indian economy by relating movements in the yield spread in the government securities market to movements in the index of industrial production. The results show that yield spread could, inter alia, be considered as a leading indicator of industrial activity in India.
Publication date: May 2002
ISBN: 9781451851526
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Yield curve , yield spread , leading indicators , working capital , probability , government securities , equation , forecasting , Prices , Business Fluctuations , and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation , Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation , Lead Indicators

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